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The Catalog Analytics Challenge

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You think you know a little something about catalog marketing and analytics?  Take this quiz, and find out for yourself.  You may just find out that you’re the best qualified candidate for a job at a major retail brand!


Question #1:  You mailed a catalog to 1,000,000 households, and generated $4,000,000 in sales.  Your CFO wants to “grow the brand”.  She asks you what would have happened if you had mailed 1,333,333 households.  If you mailed 1,333,333 households, what is the total amount of net sales you would have generated?

  1. $4,618,744.
  2. $5,333,333.
  3. $6,000,000.
Question #2:  Your catalog was 96 pages, and generated $4,000,000 in sales.  Your CFO wants to “grow the brand”.  Next year, she wants your catalog to total 128 pages.  If you hold circulation constant, what is your forecast for total sales generated by a 128 page catalog?
  1. $4,618,744.
  2. $5,333,333.
  3. $6,000,000.
Question #3:  Online, your average order value is about $100.  When a customer orders from a 124 page catalog over the phone, the customer generates a $110 average order value.  If you offered a new, 180 page catalog, what is the average order value you would forecast?
  1. $115.
  2. $160.
  3. $165.
Question #4:  If you want to learn the true amount of sales generated by a catalog, you should …
  1. Measure total sales generated at your call center.
  2. Match back all online orders generated by customers mailed the catalog over a three week period of time to the catalog you mailed, sum those orders to call center orders attributed to the keycode on the back of the catalog.
  3. Execute a mail/holdout test, subtracting the difference between the mailed group and the holdout group.
Question #5:  You mail 1,000,000 catalogs, generating $4,000,000 in sales.  40% of sales flow-through to profit, prior to subtracting catalog marketing costs.  The catalog costs $1,000,000 to send to customers.  How much profit did you generate by mailing the catalog?
  1. $250,000.
  2. $600,000.
  3. $3,000,000.
Question #6:  Assume you mail a monthly catalog, three catalogs total per quarter.  In the quarter, a customer generates $12.00 demand from catalog marketing, and $12.00 independent of catalog marketing.  You decide to add one catalog to the catalog stream.  How much total demand (catalog + online) will a customer generate in the quarter with one four catalogs mailed instead of three catalog mailed?
  1. $16.00.
  2. $25.86.
  3. $28.00.
Question #7:  Your CFO demands that a newly acquired customer pay you back within twelve months.  A newly acquired customer generates $15.00 profit in the first twelve months.  40% of the demand generated by a newly acquired customer flows-through to profit, prior to catalog marketing costs.  An individual catalog costs $1.00 to mail.  Assuming that the response rate is 2%, and assuming that the average order value is $100, can you generate enough profit in the first twelve months to offset the profit lost in the initial order?
  1. Yes.
  2. No.
Question #8:  In Question #7, how much profit did you lose, per respondent, on the initial order?
  1. $6.00.
  2. $9.00.
  3. $10.00.
Question #9:  Your annual repurchase rate is just 28%, meaning that a measly 28% of last year’s customers will purchase again this year.  Still, you generate EBITDA of 15%, meaning that 15% of all sales convert to profit, after subtracting all expenses.  Is your business a failure?
  1. Yes.
  2. No.
Question #10:  When you do not offer 20% off of your order, you generate a response rate of 5%, an average order value of $100, a cost to mail the catalog of $1.00, and 40% of demand flows through to profit.  When you do offer 20% off of your order, you generate a response rate of 6% and an average order value of $110.  Which strategy is more profitable?
  1. A non-promotional strategy.
  2. A promotional strategy.
Question #11:  You possess 2,000,000 twelve month buyers.  40% of your twelve month buyer file will repurchase last year.  How many new+reactivated customers do you need to satisfy your CFO’s request to grow the twelve month buyer file by 10% next year?
  1. 800,000.
  2. 1,200,000.
  3. 1,400,000.
Question #12:  Using the statistics in Question #11, how many new+reactivated customers do you need to satisfy your CFO’s request to grow the twelve month buyer file by 10% next year, assuming you are able to increase your annual repurchase rate from 40% to 45%?
  1. 1,300,000.
  2. 1,400,000.
  3. 1,500,000.
  4. 1,600,000.
Question #13:  A customer generates a $130 average order value, purchasing 3 items per order.  What is the average price per item purchased?
  1. $36.27.
  2. $40.18.
  3. $43.33.
Answers:
  • Question #1 = 1.  You use the square root rule to approximate sales.
  • Question #2 = 1.  You can also use the square root rule to approximate sales here!
  • Question #3 = 1.  AOV is unlikely to increase significantly with more pages, given the online AOV.
  • Question #4 = 3.  Mail/Holdout tests consistently deliver better results than those generated by matchback algorithms.
  • Question #5 = $600,000:  $4,000,000 * 0.40 – $1,000,000.
  • Question #6 = 2.  There will be cannibalization, meaning that you can’t assume that the fourth catalog will generate what the first three catalogs generate.  That rules out answer three.  Answer one makes no sense whatsoever, leaving only answer two as a reasonable answer.
  • Question #7 = 1, Yes.  (0.02*100*0.4 – $1.00)/(0.02) = Lose $10 up-front, generate $15 profit in the next year, net = +$5.00.
  • Question #8 = 3 … You lose $10.00 up-front (see Question #7 above).
  • Question #9 = 2 … No, your business is not a failure.  The repurchase rate is irrelevant.  Customer loyalty is irrelevant, it’s your management of customer loyalty that matters most.  If your catalog business is generating 15% EBITDA, you are a highly successful business leader.
  • Question #10 = 1 … the non-promotional strategy is far more profitable … non-promotional = (0.05*100*0.4 – 1.00 = 1.00 profit) … promotional strategy = (0.06*110*0.4 – 1.00 – 0.06*110*0.20 = 0.32 profit).
  • Question #11 = 3 … you need 1,400,000 new+reactivated buyers.  Work backwards.  You need 2,200,000 to satisfy your CFO.  You have 2,000,000 twelve-month buyers who repurchase at a 40% rate, meaning that 800,000 will purchase again.  2,200,000 – 800,000 = 1,400,000.
  • Question #12 = 1 … you need 1,300,000 new+reactivated buyers.  Work backwards.  You need 2,200,000 to satisfy your CFO.  You have 2,000,000 twelve-month buyers who repurchase at a 45% rate, meaning that 900,000 will repurchase again.  2,200,000 – 900,000 = 1,300,000.
  • Question #13 = 3 … 130 / 3 = 43.33.

Written by Kevin

August 1st, 2012 at 3:15 am

Retail Brand Strategy: Brick And Mortar Versus Online

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Brand Strategy Online Retail

Today on Branding Strategy Insider, another question from the BSI Emailbag. Ahmed, an entrepreneur and brand marketer in San Francisco, California writes:

“I own a modern furniture company and sell numerous brands. At the same time, I want to build my own company brand, called Urban Loft, because (1) the name alone is the ideal name for the lifestyle/product and (2) I’ve successfully trademarked the name and want to take advantage of it. In an ideal world, the products I sell would be exclusive to me and this will be a non-issue. But in today’s internet era manufacturers are acting like retailers — pushing their own brands — good for them, but it conflicts with my interests and building awareness for my brand.

It seems I have two options. First, I can sell products (either on the web or in the retail store) without marketing my manufacturers’ brand. Or I can go with the flow (like most retailers online) and market that I sell other brands. This article recommends the second option. What do you recommend?”

Thanks for your question Ahmed. Is your store primarily a brick and mortar store or an online store? If it is a brick and mortar store, there are significant advantages to branding your store. Having a strong retail brand is a primary source of leverage when negotiating with manufacturers’ brands. Plus, the actual retail space allows you to create a specific branded environment and customer experience. Your store will come to stand for something, a certain style or lifestyle or something else. While I wouldn’t mask what manufacturers’ brands you carry in your store, especially if they are brands with allot of equity, I would focus on what your brand stands for and create the right environment, retail display, service level, mix of products, etc. to reinforce that brand. If you are primarily an online furniture retailer, the brands you carry, the website functionality and especially your product pricing, become very important to your success. The way you present products so that people can get a sense of the “look and feel” and the quality is also important.

If you are a manufacturer of modern furniture with multiple consumer brands in your portfolio, you should carefully think through your brand portfolio to determine if you have the appropriate brand architecture or if you are supporting too many brands, some of which could be merged into the other brands. The brand architecture exercise would also help you determine the proper relationship between the parent (company) brand and the individual product brands. Whether you are primarily a furniture manufacturer or retailer, a brick and mortar store would provide the most powerful platform for expressing your brand’s identity and promise. There is something to be said for creating a strong retail brand and, in the furniture category, I would believe that there is a significant advantage to customers being able to touch, feel, see and try out the furniture before purchasing it.

Thanks for your question Ahmed. Do you have a question related to branding? Just Ask…

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Dear Catalog CEOs: Store Distance and Mobile

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Dear Catalog CEOs:


There’s a reason why cataloging evolved to a 55+, rural-based business model.


Let’s say you live three miles from your nearest Pottery Barn store.  You receive a Cuddledown of Maine catalog in your mailbox on a Monday.  Interesting items, interesting prices.  But you also live three miles from your nearest Pottery Barn store.


Until 2011, retail always beat online, online always beat catalogs, leaving catalogs to cater to an older, rural audience.


If you worked for a retail brand, and you analyzed tests, you knew that a few things were “true”.

  • If a customer lived 0-5 miles from one of your stores, catalogs had marginal utility, and emails were more likely to drive volume into stores than to your website.
  • If a customer lived 6-10 miles from one of your stores, catalogs inspired some customers to visit stores and some customers to visit your website.  Emails were equally likely to drive volume to stores or to your website.
  • If a customer lived 11-25 miles from one of your stores, you were in multi-channel heaven!  Just about everything worked.
  • If a customer lived 26-50 miles from one of your stores, the story shifted.  Catalogs drove customers online, while websites were much less effective at getting customers to get into a car and shop at a store.  The website became the anchor of the business for customers 26-50 miles from a store.
  • If a customer lived 51+ miles from one of your stores, the story shifted again.  Catalogs fueled the relationship, as rural customers embraced tradition, routine, comfort, and habit, all offered in catalogs.
Until 2011, retail mulched direct marketing.

Then mobile entered the picture.

Mobile doesn’t compete with cataloging, be honest!  The 27 year old Jasmine that is using a mobile device is not trading a catalog order for a mobile order.

E-commerce doesn’t really compete with retail, if it did, retail would have posted giant, negative comps from 2000 – 2010.  No, e-commerce destroyed catalog marketing, it didn’t do much damage to retail.

However, mobile is set to destroy retail as we know it.

No, mobile isn’t going to cannibalize 40% of retail sales.

Mobile only has to cannibalize 3-5% of retail sales, over the next 3-5 years, to exact a harsh penalty on a debt-ridden channel.  Retail demands that comp store sales increase enought to offset inflationary pressures.  Without such increases, retailers cannot cover debt obligations and fixed costs.

Entire retail brands will crumble under the pressure of minor comp store sales declines and huge debt obligations.

As this transition happens, companies will take drastic measures to protect the profit and loss statement.  Retailers will spend less on search marketing.  They will cut back on catalog circulation.  They’ll do this indiscriminately.

This yields an opportunity for the cataloger … Jasmine’s generation uses mobile to knock out a portion of the retail infrastructure … retailers respond by trimming marketing to Judy and Jennifer (mistake) to keep the business solvent in the short term … Judy turns to catalogs … Jennifer turns to e-commerce … Jasmine continues to embrace mobile.

Mobile, and the impact that mobile/Jasmine could have on retail, have the potential to prop-up catalog marketing a bit over the next five years.  Pay close attention to mobile trends.  Pay close attention to who uses mobile devices in your business.  Code each zip code in your database for proximity to retail, and then measure the productivity (and channel preference) of those zip codes over time.

And contact me for help with all of this … because it is about to get very interesting!

Dear Catalog CEOs: Placing Bets

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Dear Catalog CEOs:


Last week, you read about a CEO transition at Best Buy.  Regardless of why the CEO transition is happening, Best Buy has been struggling to find ways to combat mobile and Amazon.


Last week, you also read that Instagram was purchased by Facebook for just a billion dollars.


I was in a retail store last week.  A manager and an employee were standing next to me.  The manager was explaining that his company was being beaten silly by Amazon.  He told the employee that there was a new plan to combat Amazon.  The plan was to cross-sell services to the customer.  The manager explained how the program would work, how the employee would explain to the customer that the company offered services, valuable services, services that Amazon could never hope to match.  The employee would attempt to cross-sell services, even if the customer had not yet purchased an item!


The employee had that “how fast can I get a job at Jiffy Lube?” look.  You could just see the dread on his face … the dread of having to try to sell a service that the customer didn’t ask for and probably doesn’t want to purchase.


We’re all placing bets these days, aren’t we?


Take my former employer, Nordstrom.

Now, honestly, I couldn’t care less whether you agree or disagree with the investments, that’s irrelevant.

What is relevant is that folks are placing bets.  People are betting as to what they think the future of commerce is.

Earlier, I told you about the discussion between a manager and employee at a retail brand … the manager was explaining that his management team was betting that service would trump online price and convenience.  Again, it is irrelevant whether you agree or disagree with the thesis, it’s simply a bet.

This brings me to you.

What are you betting on?

Are you betting that Judy will continue to spend money well beyond retirement?

Are you betting that you can seamlessly pivot your business to Jennifer?

Are you betting that you can find a business model that relates to Jasmine?


Are you betting on free shipping as a way to compete with Amazon?


Are you betting on proprietary merchandise as a key differentiator?


Are you betting on selling the same merchandise readily available online, but with better customer service?

Written by Kevin

April 16th, 2012 at 3:15 am

Retail Alignment

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For those who have a retail channel, you don’t have much data to tell you if Judy, Jennifer, or Jasmine are shopping retail stores.


You do, however, have data that tells you which direct-channel customers are shopping your stores.


So, segment your direct-channel customer base … I like to look at 12-month buyers, but include all purchase history, weighted by recency of course.  Once I have everybody coded (Judy, Jennifer, Jasmine), I split this audience by direct-channel only and retail+direct-channel.


Here’s an example:


Direct-Only Channel Buyers

  • Judy = 28%.
  • Jennifer = 22%.
  • Jasmine = 50%.
Direct Channel Buyers with 1+ Retail Purchase, Last 12 Months
  • Judy = 24%.
  • Jennifer = 24%.
  • Jasmine = 52%.
This is a very common outcome when a retail brand elects to “integrate” the direct channel with the rest of the business.  It’s common to have more “Judy” style customers in the direct-only side of the business, these are often rural shoppers without access to retail.

When channels are not in alignment, you’ll see differences that are more substantial:
Direct-Only Channel Buyers
  • Judy = 44%.
  • Jennifer = 31%.
  • Jasmine = 25%.
Direct Channel Buyers with 1+ Retail Purchase, Last 12 Months
  • Judy = 25%.
  • Jennifer = 35%.
  • Jasmine = 40%.
In this situation, Management can elect to better “integrate” channels.  Or, Management can realize that different customers are shopping for different reasons, and capitalize on this opportunity.

If you are trying hard to align channels, then your efforts will bear fruit when the composition of Judy, Jennifer and Jasmine are similar for direct-only and direct+retail customers.

Stunt or Strategy? BPB News Analysis

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We’ve been wanting to reverse engineer pitches for awhile now — initially to figure out wtf might posses someone to send us pitches about “Affordable Home Decor ” and interview opps with Snooki. Yes, THAT Snooki. I mean, are there more than one? Sweet fancy mustard we hope not.

This post analyzes two different news stories I saw on CNN yesterday — before the Super Bowl pre-game kicked in. Google confirms that both stories are making a ton of news. Let’s look at some of the reasons why.

Chronicle’s Flying People
Chronicle is a movie about “friends who gain powerful superhuman abilities.” And one of the ways it was promoted turned into its own hit of sorts.

 


The fact that it narrowly took the top spot, its premiere weekend, was a footnote in Jeanne Moos story. The promotion was visual, and clearly disruptive. But it also tapped directly into its plot. Some may call it a stunt, I don’t. This connection is a critical strategy and the answer to a question: “How do we display superhuman abilities in a new and creative way?” The execution is dead simple. And a viral hit.

99-Cent Flat Screens

The retail brand 99-Cent Only Stores asked: “How do we make bigger news out of our next store opening?” Unless you’re IKEA, or another retail brand that creates demand through scarcity of locations, this is a definite challenge. So the brand picked a high-price item to sell for, uh, well, you can guess for how much.

According to the news release, the first nine customers got the deal. And there was a long list of other products for everyone else in line. The flat screen retails at $230. So after the sale price, the brand spent less than $2,100 to get people camping outside their door and to make national news. So the idea is to pick an expensive product and sell it for 99-cents to reinforce the store’s focus on value.

But even smarter is the brand picking a product generally assumed to be much more expensive, regardless of the actual size. We hear new flat screen and we think Super Bowl party. So the news release may spell it all out — less than 10, 22-inch flat screens on sale for 99 cents. But perception is selective in what it hears. And it only hears 99 cent flat screens. Which simply serves to reinforce the brand while it gains media attention. 

Make a Connection
Big successes like the pitches above require a connection between a smart strategy and a creative execution of that strategy. It didn’t hurt both stories that it was a Sunday afternoon. But without asking questions to make sure you’re not “adding on stuff” to gain attention, you’ll just end up adding to the noise competing with your news.

Count ‘em

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You can’t avoid the commentary from the vendor community.

  • “There is no such thing as a store … retail is now portable.”
  • “Today’s highly empowered consumer is fully in charge of the brand experience.  Brands that fail to relate to this social shopper do so at their own peril.”
If you want to do an experiment to see if the mobile/social shopper is a reality, take your Android phone into your favorite mall-based retailer … and take a video of the first 100 customers that enter the store.  Out of 100 customers, how many use a smartphone or tablet to enjoy a fully empowered mobile/social consumer experience?

Maybe this is the future … but you’re not in the future, you’re required to hit sales expectations TODAY, you have to deliver the p&l for 2011.

So, again, take your smartphone in to your favorite retail brand, and take a video of the first 100 customers that enter the store.  Out of 100 customers, how many use a smartphone or tablet to enjoy a fully empowered mobile/social consumer experience?

And I realize that the retailer may not have a mobile website or an app … but that’s irrelevant, right?  We’re taught that these customers are interacting via social media, and tablets and smartphones easily pull up websites so that shoppers are fully empowered.

Give the experiment a try.  In fact, if you give the experiment a try, I’ll consider publishing your findings on this blog.

Give the experiment a try.

Written by Kevin

November 11th, 2011 at 4:15 am

Dear Catalog CEOs: We’re Multi-Channel

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Dear Catalog CEOs:
One of you recently said something to me that caused me to pause for a moment.  Here’s the quote.
  • Kevin, you keep calling us catalogers.  We’re not catalogers anymore.  We’re multichannel merchants.  Why do you do that?

Oh boy.

I do that because you are catalogers.

Would a retail brand say that they are not a retail brand because they have had a website for the past thirteen years?

Would an e-commerce brand say they aren’t an e-commerce brand because they added a social commerce component to their tool set?  Or because they enabled commerce on Facebook?

Be proud of yourself.

Be confident.

Name one customer, yes, a customer, who calls you a “multichannel merchant”.  Go ahead, find one … I’ll wait right here while you go look for just one customer who would voluntarily call you a “multichannel merchant” …


You are a cataloger.

Written by Kevin

October 3rd, 2011 at 3:15 am